Mental Model Posts ‘Cognitive Misjudgment’

Giving Information Meaning: The Rise of Business Analytics

BAnalytics

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Business Analytics is the scientific process of transforming data into insight for making better decisions.  Data doesn’t always cooperate with this process, as it is often massive and messy.  But no matter what condition data is in, we use business analytics to make decisions with it.

In order to make these decisions, we have to understand the ultimate value that various combinations of this data can present.  So, we measure it.  That is, we measure what data carries: information.  Measurement is what informs uncertain decisions, and almost all decisions are made under uncertainty.  Read More »

An Accelerated Master’s Degree: Statistics in a Book (or Two)

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Topics: Statistics
Statistics

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There have been plenty of books recently published on the concept of Deliberate Practice, which essentially says that it takes 10,000 hours of a certain kind of practice (called ‘deliberate’) to gain expertise in something.   It makes sense that the majority of what we want to learn in any discipline is going to be experiential (or gained through practice).  But in order to better understand our experiences, we want to have some kind of framework of what to expect.  We want to develop a theory structure.

Books are what give us this theory structure, and certainly the quality of the theory structure we begin with impacts the amount of deliberate practice we need to become an ‘expert.’  So it’s important to choose the right books, as they will provide the base infrastructure upon which we will layer our experiences.  We’re looking for books that concisely capture the overriding concepts of a particular discipline.

And in any discipline, at least one fairly well defined, there doesn’t need to be that many books to accomplish this.  I would generally say that 3 books or fewer, for each discipline, will give you a proper theory structure.

With that in mind, let’s look at Statistics…  Read More »

The Story of Microsoft and the Three Men Who Made It

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The story of Microsoft, considering its creation spawned 3 of the 60 richest men in the world today, is an important one to understand.  Bill Gates, Paul Allen, and Steve Ballmer have amassed incredible amounts of wealth from Microsoft.  This is the story of how.  Read More »

Three Mental Models Great Managers Use

Shangri-La

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Organizations, left unattended, move toward disorder.  The realities of Parkinson’s Law – the idea that work expands to fill the amount of time allocated to complete it – have been well documented.  So, Parkinson’s Law helps to explain why organizations naturally evolve towards disorder, and ultimately poor performance.  Managers, of course, act to correct this.  An array of mental models assist managers in working against this natural disorder, but there are three primary mental models that produce the majority of the results:  Read More »

An Accelerated Master’s Degree: Ethics in One Book

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Topics: Ethics
Lamp in Hakone

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There have been plenty of books recently published on the concept of Deliberate Practice, which essentially says that it takes 10,000 hours of a certain kind of practice (called ‘deliberate’) to gain expertise in something.   It makes sense that the majority of what we want to learn in any discipline is going to be experiential (or gained through practice).  But in order to better understand our experiences, we want to have some kind of framework of what to expect.  We want to develop a theory structure.

Books are what give us this theory structure, and certainly the quality of the theory structure we begin with impacts the amount of deliberate practice we need to become an ‘expert.’  So it’s important to choose the right books, as they will provide the base infrastructure upon which we will layer our experiences.  We’re looking for books that concisely capture the overriding concepts of a particular discipline.

And in any discipline, at least one fairly well defined, there doesn’t need to be that many books to accomplish this.  I would generally say that 3 books or fewer, for each discipline, will give you a proper theory structure.

With that in mind, let’s look at Ethics…  Read More »

The Story of Les Schwab and His Pride in Performance

Schwab Close

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Business often comes down to a core set of principles.  And the story of Les Schwab is no exception.  Keeping things in their simplest form (Reductionism) is what allows us to arrive at a core set of principles, but this is often difficult to do. Reductionism is a key aspect of understanding anything.  If we apply this concept to business, it always comes down to people.  It really comes down to decisions, but decisions are made by people.  And what I love about the Les Schwab story is that he so clearly understood the importance of this.  He loved people.  And if you’re in business, it really helps to love people – no matter how weird, how exotic, how aloof, or how awkward.  Read More »

An Accelerated Master’s Degree: Innovation in One Book

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Topics: Innovation
Innovation

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There have been plenty of books recently published on the concept of Deliberate Practice, which essentially says that it takes 10,000 hours of a certain kind of practice (called ‘deliberate’) to gain expertise in something.   It makes sense that the majority of what we want to learn in any discipline is going to be experiential (or gained through practice).  But in order to better understand our experiences, we want to have some kind of framework of what to expect.  We want to develop a theory structure.

Books are what give us this theory structure, and certainly the quality of the theory structure we begin with impacts the amount of deliberate practice we need to become an ‘expert.’  So it’s important to choose the right books, as they will provide the base infrastructure upon which we will layer our experiences.  We’re looking for books that concisely capture the overriding concepts of a particular discipline.

And in any discipline, at least one fairly well defined, there doesn’t need to be that many books to accomplish this.  I would generally say that 3 books or fewer, for each discipline, will give you a proper theory structure.

With that in mind, let’s look at Innovation…  Read More »

A System of Marketing: The Story of John H. Patterson and National Cash Register

Cash Register

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Mental Models Used: , ,

In 1884, a small, wiry, middle-aged man named John Henry Patterson acquired the majority stock of a blandly named company called National Manufacturing Company.  That same year, Patterson renamed the company National Cash Register Company (let’s call it NCR, for short).  Although it was his first entrance into the cash register business, he realized the potential of the cash register immediately.  And Patterson, being forty years old at the time, had a fairly clear idea of what he wanted in a company.  He set right to work on creating a uniform management system, which included a uniform system of marketing.  Read More »

The Most Important Organizational Behavior: Empathy

Empathy

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Mental Models Used: ,

Peter Drucker once noted that the basic personality profile of an individual has been formed by about age five.  If even close to true, this has noticeable effects on organizational behavior within a group.  It implies that trying to alter someone’s personality to “better fit” an organization is a fruitless exercise.  But although attempting to change people is likely wasted effort, understanding them is most certainly not.

Understanding people, or the ability to share feelings with them, is what we call empathy.  And a group using empathy in its communications with each other will create stronger connections between themselves.  Stronger connections = better performance.  And as a side benefit, using empathy within a group often creates an environment where empathy is naturally used for communications or interactions with people outside the group as well.  And this is just like a little waterfall of goodness.  Read More »

How to Meet a Deadline: Mental Models Every Project Manager Should Know

univac

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In order to get things done, we often use deadlines.  This is especially the case when managing projects.  Deadlines are often created, but rarely met.  There are a lot of reasons for this, but a good portion of it can be explained by Cognitive Misjudgment.  A combination of the Over-Optimism Tendency and the Excessive Self-Regard Tendency are generally to blame when we aren’t able to meet our deadlines.  The Over-Optimism Tendency explains why we often overestimate our ability to get things done – an excess of optimism is the normal human condition – and this tends to lull us into a false sense of comfort despite an impending deadline.  Most people call this procrastination.  The Excessive Self-Regard Tendency explains why we often don’t provide for enough time to realistically meet a deadline in the first place – we constantly mis-appraise our abilities on the high side.

But there are certain ways to combat these cognitive misjudgments, and the first is following what is generally considered the standard formula for carrying out any project.  Deadlines become a whole lot easier if this formula is followed.  Read More »